Figuring in a rematch of the 2020 Western Conference Finals, the Nuggets and Lakers have changed a ton over the years. The Nuggets are no longer the feel-good upstarts of the NBA Bubble - they're juggernauts now that have responded to all the best punches of their playoff matchups so far.
The Lakers, on the other hand, went from being title favorites in 2020, to being the unexpected success story of the 2023 postseason. How much more do injured LeBron James, tired Anthony Davis, and young role players have in them?
Most compelling storyline
Nikola Jokic has proven that he’s on another level. For most of the season, it felt like the focus on tearing him down was to show why he doesn’t deserve to be a three-peat MVP. There was a lot said about his defense, though he was never truly a liability on that end, just limited. People liked to bring up the lack of postseason success and how the other three-peat MVPs all had championships, as if that should matter for a regular season award. There was a lot of willful ignorance in the Jokic discourse that it felt like watching a presidential debate.
But now, there should be a lot more perspective on just how special Jokic is. He’s averaging 30 points on 54 percent shooting with 12 rebounds and nine assists in this postseason. In their most recent series against Phoenix Suns, Jokic upped those averages to 35 points, 13 rebounds, and 10 assists. The big Serbian was the best player on the court in a series that had Kevin Durant and Devin Booker – two players who are on the cover of the hoopers’ bible. In a narrow Game 4 loss, Jokic put up 53 points and 11 assists.
All this is important because Joel Embiid, the guy who won MVP thanks to a hot streak late in the season and having one of the more successful MVP media campaigns, went 5-for-18 in Game 7 against the Boston Celtics. In the biggest game of his life, the supposed most dominant big man in the NBA could not get anything going against a 36-year-old Al Horford, nor was he effective on defense, which was supposedly his biggest advantage over Jokic.
There needs to be more sound reasoning in how we talk about greatness, especially if it affects important things like MVP voting. Embiid added another iconic play-off exit under his belt. Jokic is in the Western Conference Finals for the second time in his career and is four wins away from doing all the things that people said he needed to do to deserve a third straight MVP.
For the Lakers, this is an old line, but it’s still relevant: how would this affect LeBron’s legacy? At age 38, he’s on the cusp of another finals appearance. He outlasted the Big 3 Boston Celtics and he could now have seen the end of the Warriors Dynasty. Thanks to an underrated stretch of brilliance from Anthony Davis and solid role players, James has been able to pick his spots this postseason. There is definitely tread on his tires and that makes this LeBron run just a bit more sentimental for people who grew up watching him.
X-factors
The matchup to watch is going to be Nikola Jokic against Anthony Davis. AD has locked the paint down this postseason but he hasn't gone up against a threat like Jokic so far. Unlike in the 2020 series the Lakers won, this Lakers squad does not have centers like Dwight Howard and Javale McGee to throw at Jokic.
If and when Davis gets in foul trouble, what is Los Angeles’ Plan B? Jared Vanderbilt is nominally a center but he's probably not big enough to consistently bother Jokic’s passing or shooting rhythm. Are the Lakers going to gamble with Mo Bamba minutes? Or is there a small-ball layer to this where they try to outrun the Nuggets?
Small ball lineups have posed problems for the Nuggets but they have so much athleticism around Jokic in guys like Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and even Christian Braun. The Lakers made a living hunting mismatches against the Warriors. There may be less of those against the Nuggets. The Lakers are probably going to need to keep AD on the floor as much as possible or risk having Vanderbilt or Bamba guard him for a significant chunk.
Winning blueprint
The Nuggets have been blistering on offense this postseason, posting a 118.1 offensive rating. They just came from a series where they fought off several unbelievable offensive lines from Durant and Booker by doing just enough on defense and countering with massive offensive efforts of their own.
The Lakers have survived this postseason with their defense. They enter this series with a 106.5 defensive rating, the lowest among all eight teams in the Conference semifinals. Two of their wins against the Warriors were relatively low-scoring affairs. Holding a team with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to 101 and 96 points is a great feat.
But the Nuggets have survived in the playoffs because they can deploy lineups without a lot of defensive soft spots, aside from Jamal Murray. Gordon, Caldwell-Pope, and Brown have been integral to their schemes while Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. have been decent. They need to fight off a Lakers squad that’s going to come at them with LeBron-AD pick-and-rolls and hunt every small mismatch.
The Lakers have won Game 1 of each of their past two series on the road this postseason against teams with strong home records. The Nuggets were the second-best home team in the league in the regular season with a 34-7 record, just behind the Grizzlies (35-6) and just ahead of the Warriors (33-8). They are also undefeated at home in the playoffs. The Lakers need to snatch a game on the road and that’s always a tough task against a Denver team with a mile-high altitude advantage.
It's simple: this series is a defense versus offense kind of series. You can also see it as defense versus offense as the Lakers need to pull off more things on offense than they have in past series while the Nuggets have to do the same on defense.
