Ever since the offseason when the two teams retooled and formed their superteams, the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty seemed headed for a collision course. And now, they are the last two teams left standing as they face in the 2023 WNBA Finals.
The Aces and the Liberty split their regular season series with two wins apiece. The Liberty triumphed in their Commissioner’s Cup duel, which is not reflected in their win-loss records.
The best-of-five series begins Monday, October 9 at 3:00 AM (Philippine time). The Aces will host the first two games before the series shifts to possibly two more games in New York. Game 5, if necessary, will be in Las Vegas.
Let’s break down the matchup by asking a few questions.
What is the most intriguing matchup?
With all the talent in each roster, there are a handful of matchups that can ultimately dictate the outcome of this series. Both teams have explosive backcourts with Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum powering the Aces and Courtney Vandersloot, Sabrina Ionescu, and Betnijah Laney leading the Liberty.
But the headline of this meeting between two heavyweights are their MVPs. You have A’ja Wilson, who won the award in 2020 and 2022, and Breanna Stewart, who won in 2018 and this year. Bring out the popcorn if they’ll guard each other for the entire series. The last time they met in the Finals three years ago, Stewart and the Seattle Storm swept the Aces.
The defenses of each team will be wired to limit the other’s best player so it’ll be intriguing how each star will adjust. Both players can operate inside and out but Stewart has the slight edge in the perimeter since she’s more comfortable taking 3s. The Liberty also have a beefier frontcourt led by former MVP Jonquel Jones and Wilson will be crowded every time she touches the ball in the paint. However, we’ve seen the Aces adjust against a tall frontline in the Dallas Wings in the semifinals. They played small with the guards spacing the floor that allowed Wilson more room to operate.
Aside from the players, a matchup also worth noting is the coaching battle between Becky Hammon and Sandy Brondello who already have titles under their belts (Hammon last year and Brondello in 2014 with the Phoenix Mercury). To add another storyline, this will be the first time that two former players will meet in the Finals as head coaches. Hammon was part of the last New York team to reach the Finals in 2002. When the future Hall of Famer played in San Antonio, Brondello was on the coaching staff.
What can their regular season matchups tell us?
The old basketball adage says that everything goes out the window when it comes to the playoffs, especially in the Finals. That being said, the five meetings between the Aces and Liberty do give us a backdrop of what we could expect.
An underrated quality of these teams is their championship-level defense amid all the offensive prowess they possess. In particular, it was the defensive adjustments in the second half that helped either team get their wins.
When New York blasted Las Vegas, 99-61, in their second meeting, the key stat that stood out was Wilson’s nine points on 2-for-14 shooting. It seems unfathomable to think that Wilson will shoot that poorly again but it shows how the Libery defense was hellbent on stopping her.
On the flip side, the Aces have to be locked in on the Liberty’s shooting. Ionescu can singlehandedly change the complexion of the game. She shot a career-best 44.8 pecent during the regular season and she’s still shooting 43.2 percent through six playoff games.
The Aces own the best defensive rating in the regular season (97.7) and in the playoffs (88.4) but the Liberty has shown that they can still play their style against the defending champions. Defensive adjustments will be key in this series.
Who is the X-Factor for each team?
Alysha Clark has been the X-Factor for the Aces ever since Candace Parker was sidelined. She was named this season’s Sixth Player of the Year for a reason as she’s the most important player on the Aces’ bench. Coach Hammon obviously can’t play her best four players (Young, Wilson, Gray, and Plum) for the entire game and that’s when Clark’s versatility kicks in. With her in the lineup, the Aces can go small with Wilson at the five and Clark at the four. She can also sub in for either of the Aces’ guard all while shadowing the best perimeter player on the other end. The Aces might go as low as seven players deep in the Finals and Clark will be play a very important role in the series.
For the Liberty, Jones is the easy pick as an X-Factor especially if Wilson and Stewart cancel each other out. But keep an eye on Betnijah Laney who’s averaging 17.0 points, including 2.3 makes from deep, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in the playoffs. She provides a consistent scoring option for the Liberty to supplement the productions of Stewart and Ionescu. At the same time, she’ll be tasked to stick with one of the three Aces guard. Ionescu and Courtney Vandersloot are able defenders but they are not on the same level as Laney.
What is each team’s blueprint for success?
The Liberty’s semifinals win over the Connecticut Sun might have been the team’s turning point that will carry them to the title. The Sun was a tough defensive team that reveled in dragging teams in the mud. The Liberty were stunned in the first game, but showed the necessary grit and poise that’s evident in championship teams, to win the series. They proved that they can still get into their offensive flow while not allowing one player (Alyssa Thomas) to beat them. Even though the Aces are deadlier on offense and are a better defensive team than the Sun, the experienced gained by the Liberty shouldn’t be overlooked.
The Liberty’s depth might also play a significant role in this series even as rotations typically shorten at this time of the year. Coach Brondello has all kinds of tools in her bench, including Kayla Thornton, Marine Johannes, and Stefanie Dolson. All can provide quality minutes that play well with New York’s starting unit.
For the Aces, their second title will rest on their four best players – Wilson, Plum, Gray, and Young. It seems obvious to say that they need to play well in the Finals, but there’s little room for error because of how talented New York is. They need A’ja to be a dominant two-way force. They need Kelsey and Jackie to provide the offensive spark and be pesky defenders. And they Chelsea to play like the way she did in last season’s playoff run when she ended up as the Finals MVP. The tenacious defense has to kickstart the high-octane offense and the 3s need to go down. The Aces need to play Aces basketball at the highest level if they want to become back-to-back champions.
