It will be a shootout in the West as the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers face off in a second-round showdown.
The top-seeded Jazz disposed of the Memphis Grizzlies in five games while the Clippers had to withstand a Luka Doncic onslaught to move on. Both teams have been in the upper echelon of the standings for most of the year and their lineups present a monumental matchup of stars.
It’s Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. It’s Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. It’s two teams hoping to etch their legacies in NBA history.
Buckle up for Clippers versus Jazz.
Most compelling storyline
Have the Clippers finally figured things out? Their first round slugfest against the Mavericks allowed them to show their mettle especially after losing the first two games at home. And judging by how they survived Game 6 on the road and triumphed in Game 7, it seems that they’ve turned a corner and have gained an identity.
Coach Ty Lue stuck with his small ball lineup even when Dallas unleashed 7-foot-4 Boban Marjanovic alongside fellow 7-footer Kristaps Porzingis. The Clippers adjusted when needed and followed through with their game plan. When Patrick Beverley didn’t work, they cut him out of the rotation. The same happened with Rajon Rondo and Ivica Zubac. Terance Mann was brilliant and so was Reggie Jackson as the Clippers recognized who they can count on in different types of situations. It also helped that Leonard showed that he’s still one of the top ten players of the league.
The Clippers are now battle-tested and have shown enough mental fortitude. That’s what happens when you go through the fire of facing Luka Doncic for seven games. They also buried the painful memories of last year’s collapse against the Denver Nuggets.
On the flip side, the Jazz have known who they are since the start of the year. They’ve been the number one team in the league and have embraced their identity as the squad to beat. They know who their best players, best rotations, and best plays are.
Even the Jazz's Game 1 hiccup versus the Grizzlies — where they lost and played without Donovan Mitchell — couldn’t derail the inevitable. The Jazz easily beat the Grizzlies because they were the better team.
Now against the Clippers, the Jazz have to trust how they got the top seed and play to their strengths.
Keep an eye on…
Imagine two armies on the cusp of battle in an open field with their archers on the backend waiting to rain down a hellfire of arrows. That’s what it’s going to look like when the Clippers and Jazz face off. The series will probably go down to who can shoot better from beyond the arc.
The Clippers were the number one 3-point shooting team in the regular season, hitting 41.1 percent of their shots. The core of Nicolas Batum, Marcus Morris Sr., Luke Kennard, Reggie Jackson, Rajon Rondo, Terance Mann, Paul George, shot at least 40 percent from beyond the arc. Kawhi Leonard had a 39.8 clip while Patrick Beverley shot 39.7. So if you include those two, that’s eight players who can burn you to the ground with outside shooting.
Against the Mavericks, however, the Clippers failed to hit their target until the series finale. They shot a mediocre 35 percent from rainbow country (74-for-209) in the first six games. But in Game 7, they trusted their shot and went out guns blazing. As a team, the Clippers made a record 20 3s - the most in a Game 7. Morris Sr. knocked down seven triples, matching Steph Curry for most triples in a seventh game.
If the Clippers were the most accurate from 3 in the regular season, the Jazz were the best at making them. They attempted 43.0 and knocked down 16.7 - both league-highs. Percentage-wise, they were fourth in the league, drilling 38.9 percent of their shots from downtown.
The Jazz thrive on the synergy of their pick-and-roll game, ball movement, and outside shooting. They are a well-oiled machine in 3-point shooting.
X-factor
The guards will play a pivotal role in the series.
The Jazz come into the second round already hobbled with lead guard Mike Conley dealing with a hamstring issue. After averaging 17.4 points and 8.6 assists against his former team, he wasn’t able to finish Game 5. According to the team, an MRI revealed that he had a “mild” hamstring strain and will still be reevaluated before Game 1.
It’s obvious that Conley adds elite playmaking and veteran presence ever since he joined the Jazz back in 2019, but this season he’s shown more comfortable in his role. If Conley isn’t a hundred percent, it will have a ripple effect on the ball-handling duties for the Jazz. This will add more pressure to Mitchell as the starter, as well as to Sixth Man of the Year Jordan Clarkson.
Speaking of Clarkson, he’s cooled off quite a bit compared to the start of the year but he still provides a ton of firepower off the bench. He scored 18.6 points in the five games versus the Grizzlies. However, his shooting has been subpar. The Filipino-American is down to 23.8 percent from beyond the arc in the postseason after shooting 34.7 in the 68 games he played prior. Conley’s hamstring is a cause of concern especially against the Clippers who will prey on poor ball-handling and decision-making.
It’ll be interesting to see which guards step up for the Clippers. The team will likely stay small given how they love to spread the floor and shoot the 3 on offense. On defense, a switchable lineup will counter the Jazz who uses a ton of pick-and-roll action. Small ball will also push Rudy Gobert to stretch out and defend the perimeter more. That said, will we see Beverly back in the mix? What about Rondo? Should coach Lue stick with Mann and Jackson?
Leonard and George took the brunt of the playmaking against the Mavericks. A drive-and-kick by two of the best wing players in the game left the Mavericks defense in shambles. If Leonard and George carry the guard play versus the Jazz, while the other players just shoot the 3, that might be another option worth looking into.
Winning blueprint
Winning time in the playoffs will often boil down to star power. Will your main guy rise to the occasion and be the best player on the floor?
Leonard is coming off arguably his best two-way performance of his playoff career. He averaged 32.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.0 blocks. The most eye-popping stat was his shooting. He went 61.2 percent from the field, including a 42.5 clip from downtown, plus 89.8 from the line. If you dive in further with the numbers, Leonard shot an effective field goal percentage of 67.5, which is the second-highest mark in the last 55 years for a player scoring at least 30 points per game in a series according to NBA.com’s John Schuhmann. That offensive performance is otherworldly. And then you factor in the fact that he defended Doncic for most of Games 6 and 7, that’s an all-time performance.
Leonard is that guy for the Clippers and will be the best player on the floor versus the Jazz. He’s just that good. Will he put up insane numbers while guarding Mitchell on the other end? Probably not for the entire series but there will be stretches when Leonard will go deep into his bag and switch to another gear.
For the Jazz, their guy is Mitchell. Assuming that there are no lingering effects from his ankle injury, he’s the best bet that can carry the Jazz to the next round. He put up 28.5 points and 5.8 assists against the Grizzlies and has shown that he’s improving year by year, playoffs by playoffs. Last season, he went toe-to-toe with Jamal Murray in a shootout for the ages, so you know he puts on his superhero scoring cape if he needs to. The difference now is that while he can still go one-on-one putting the ball in the hoop, the team surrounding him is playing at an elite level sharing the ball and shooting from the 3-point land.
Mitchell may not be at par with Leonard but if you put together his individual brilliance with the Jazz’s cohesiveness, they can take down the Clippers.
It’s a battle between two teams who get much of their scoring from the 3-point line. But what other factors will play into this series?
