The outcome of the first round series between the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks (52-30) and No. 5 seed Utah Jazz (49-33) will dictate a lot about the future of the two ball clubs.
After trading away Kristaps Porzingis, who was supposed to be the franchise’s second star, the Mavericks are now plotting a new trajectory with Luka Doncic solely at the helm. Will a quick postseason exit force the team to maximize more drastic options in trying to build a better team around their young transcendent star? This first round battle with Doncic dealing with an injury could dictate how deep they go in the playoffs.
For the Jazz, is their championship window closing? How important is it for Donovan Mitchell and company to break through and finally compete for a championship this year? Utah is still a titan out in the West. However, if the team doesn’t get through against a Mavericks team with an injured Doncic, it will be hard to talk about their title aspirations in the near future.
Most compelling storyline
The biggest story coming out of Dallas is the injury to Luka Doncic. The do-it-all playmaker sustained a left calf strain in the Mavericks’ last regular season game against the San Antonio Spurs. According to the team, they are not putting a timetable on his return, though he has already begun treatment.
Obviously, Doncic is Dallas’ North Star. The team’s title hopes hinge on his very presence on the floor. He’s the team leader in points (28.4), rebounds (9.1), assists (8.7), and steals (1.2). And if you want to talk about usage rate, it doesn’t take an analytics person to point out that this guy has the ball in his hands a whole lot. Without him, you’re asking more out of Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie to create and put points on the scoreboard. The same goes for role players Dwight Powell and Dorian Finney-Smith. The Mavericks are like a car without an engine if you take out Luka.
It’s also a no-brainer that the Jazz will have an easier time defending the Mavericks. Instead of having nobody to match up against Doncic, they suddenly have all the tools to shut down the entire Dallas roster. Not to mention, Utah will already be favored this round solely because of its star power in Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.
X-factors
For the Jazz to really put away the Mavericks early, they need Jordan Clarkson to be that flamethrower off the bench. You know Mitchell will put up huge numbers and Utah will shoot a ton of triples. But if they can’t have Clarkson in Sixth Man of the Year form, it will be a tedious task to topple the Mavs, with or without Doncic.
Clarkson still averaged a steady diet of 16.0 points per game but this season wasn’t the same as the one before. The shooting hasn’t been there for JC all year. From averaging 42.5 percent from the field, 34.7 percent from downtown, and 89.6 percent at the line last season, he’s down to 41.9/31.8/82.8 shooting splits. The Jazz need those Clarkson heat-check moments in the playoffs.
The Mavericks, on the other hand, will be relying on Brunson and Dinwiddie. Even if Doncic comes back mid-series, we won’t know at what percent he’ll be. The decision-making and ball-handling duties will fall on these two guys.
Winning blueprint
The Mavericks need Doncic sooner than later. Fortunately, the first two games of the series will be at the American Airlines Center. They always say that role players play better at home. There’s familiarity and comfort in playing in your own arena, supported by adoring fans. If Brunson, Dinwiddie, Powell, and the rest of the crew can hold the fort and get a win or two, it’ll be huge. Hopefully, Doncic won’t miss a ton of time because as soon as he steps on the court, the dynamics of the series will change dramatically.
If you’re the Jazz, you just gotta do you. Give the ball to Mitchell and let him create. Get Mike Conley and Gobert into a ton of pick-and-rolls. Let Clarkson loose with the second unit and watch him light up the scoreboard. Shoot a ton of 3s since that’s one of your biggest strengths. Focus on shutting down the Mavericks’ scoring guards and you’ll be in a good position to win.
An early postseason exit is not an option for these two proud teams. A franchise’s future might change considerably if they lose in the first round.
