After injuries, subpar performances, and internal drama, the Miami Heat are somehow in the playoffs. In the Jimmy Butler era, the Heat have found a way to be successful in the regular season with their star being load managed. This season, that nearly cost them a postseason seat.
The Bucks, on the other hand, dominated the Eastern Conference. They were so good, that they mostly skated by people's radars for other favorites like the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers. But it's been Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks that have consistently looked like title contenders all season.
Most compelling storyline
This has become somewhat of a mini-rivalry. We didn’t get a postseason matchup between these two last season, but in the 2020 and 2021 postseasons, they clashed in pretty spicy series.
In 2020, the Heat outlasted the Bucks in six games in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The next season, the Bucks swept the Heat in the first round en route to the title.
What's great about this budding rivalry is there hasn’t been a lot of smack-talking or pettiness. Most of the drama stems from what happens on the court. In 2020, the Heat employed the wall strategy that has famously been used to try and stop Giannis from getting to the rim. In 2021, Giannis dismantled that wall, averaging nearly 30 points in the sweep.
By far the biggest storyline of this series is going to be Playoff Jimmy. Butler has developed a reputation of being sporadically unavailable in the regular season, only to turn into a beast in the playoffs. Last season, he nearly powered the Heat to the Finals, averaging 28 points on 50 percent shooting. Against Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals, he had two 40-point outbursts and a heroic 35-point effort in Game 7.
He's looked more fragile this season with his supporting csst also showing some cracks, but just the specter of Playoff Jimmy should strike some fear into Bucks fans.
X-factors
He’s been talked about sufficiently, so it’s hard to call Brook Lopez underrated. Here’s a guy who pivoted from a low-post threat to the prototype modern block-and-three big. He’s a finalist for Defensive Player of the Year after averaging 2.5 blocks and anchoring Milwaukee's league-leading defense by rating. He’s also hitting nearly two 3s a game on 37 percent shooting and averaging 15.6 points, his best since the 2016-2017 season.
Lopez is going to be crucial against the Heat, who will most likely try to make him defend in space and take him out of the paint. Mike Budenhozer has developed several wrinkles in his defense to account for this because they can’t afford to not have Lopez on the floor.
For the Heat, they need something from Kyle Lowry. The GROAT’s tenure with the Heat has been underwhelming, to say the least, but he’s recently shown some signs of life. On paper, the Heat have the personnel to matchup against the Bucks, but that’s only if Lowry can muster some of his peak performance.
Winning blueprint
The Bucks have been indomitable in defense in a season that has seen meteoric offensive outputs. Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Giannis, and Lopez don’t just provide a steady offense, they’re also one of the top defensive lineups this season. They should poke holes in the Heat’s 25th ranked offense.
Miami is the one that has a lot to prove this series. Can Jimmy Butler go off again? Is Tyler Herro ready to be a second option? Is Bam Adebayo going to be enough to contain the Bucks’ attack? They have all these questions plus their inconsistent shooting to worry about. The Heat are a scary group that have been inconsistent all season. Are they ready to wake up?
